We all know that having a good spine is critical for a team to consistently score enough points to win their fair share of games.

It’s no surprise that the premiership winners in recent times have generally had among the best numbers 1, 6, 7 and 9 in the competition. So, with round one of the 2025 season less than two months away, what does that mean for your club?

Which teams have the spines capable of taking them all the way to a victory lap this year, and which teams will really struggle to make an impact?

In making our assessment, let’s not forget the spine depth players who invariably play a huge part in every team’s performance across the season as key players go missing because of either injury or representative commitments.

With most clubs’ rosters now mostly settled for 2025, although we know that anything can still happen at either the Roosters or the Dogs if they find another wad of cash under the mattress.

Here are my ratings of every club’s expected spine, and their back-up, and I reckon that any club rating less than 19 points can forget about premiership glory this year.

Melbourne Storm – 22.5
Ryan Papenhuyzen (4), Cameron Munster (4.5), Jahrome Hughes (5), Harry Grant (5), Depth (4).

The big question on the Storm spine is whether fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen can hold off the challenge for his position from the sensational Sua Fa’alogo. Good problem to have I guess, and if five-eighth Cameron Munster returns to full fitness, then Melbourne’s spine will be hard to top, with half Jarome Hughes and hooker Harry Grant two of the best in the business.

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They have some excellent spine depth as well, with Fa’alogo, Tyran Wishart and Jonah Pezet starting players in most other clubs, well supported by Bronson Garlick and youngsters Keegan Russell-Smith and Stanley Huen.

Penrith Panthers – 20
Dylan Edwards (5), Blaize Talagi (2), Nathan Cleary (5), Mitch Kenny (4), Depth (4).

At age 20 by the time the season starts, and with just 20 first-grade games to his name and only two of those at five-eighth, Talagi will be the Panthers’ spine’s weakest link. I wonder if coach Ivan Cleary will be tempted to begin the season with either of the more experienced halves in Brad Schneider or Daine Laurie in the No.6 jersey and run Talagi in the outside backs?

They’ll certainly miss Jarome Luai this year but the rest of their spine in Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary and Mitch Kenny are as good as they come.

They also have solid depth in not only Schneider and Laurie, but also Soni Luke, Jack Cole, Trent Toelau and Luke Sommerton.

Brisbane Broncos – 20
Reece Walsh (5), Ben Hunt (4.5), Adam Reynolds (4), Billy Walters (3), Depth (3.5).

While the loss of Ezra Mam for the early part of the season will blunt the Broncos left-side running game somewhat, Ben Hunt’s presence will most likely make Brisbane an even more dangerous attacking proposition and bring Reece Walsh into play on both sides of the field.

Reece Walsh. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

With Ezra Mam to be available later in the year, and the likes of Tyson Smoothy, Jock Madden, Cory Paix, Blake Mozer, Coby Black, Josh Rogers and Hayze Perham all capable of playing a role in the spine when needed, they have some solid back-up when the ageing Reynolds and Hunt need a break.

Wests Tigers – 20
Jahream Bula (3.5), Lachlan Galvin (3.5), Jarome Luai (5), Apisai Koroisau (4.5), Depth (3.5)

The arrival of four-time premiership winner, NSW star and Samoan captain Jarome Luai is the biggest news at the Tigers in a very long time, and with an excellent supporting cast of Bula, Galvin and Koroisau, the club’s long-suffering fans will be expecting to be on the right side of the scoreboard more often than not for a change in 2025.

The experienced Jack Bird, Adam Doueihi and Sunia Turuva can all play a role in the spine if required and there’s further support in the shape of Tallyn Da Silva, Latu Fainu and Heath Mason.

Manly Sea Eagles – 19.5
Tom Trbojevic (5), Luke Brooks (3.5), Daly Cherry-Evans (4.5), Lachlan Croker (3), Depth (3.5).

It’s a case of rinse and repeat for Manly with no changes to their spine from last year, and everyone at the club will have all appendages crossed that Tommy Turbo can remain relatively injury-free this year, as the 20 appearances he made in 2024 were the most since 2018.

DCE is in the last year of his current contract so he will be keen to impress while Luke Brooks looks happy for the first time in his career.

The spine has a solid support crew, with outside backs Reuben Garrick and Tolutau Koula both able to switch to fullback if required, the exciting Lehi Hopoate just waiting for another crack at first grade, Jake Arthur, Jake Simpkin and Gordon Chan Kum Tong all with first-grade experience, and young hopefuls Clayton Faulalu and Joey Walsh also waiting in the wings.

Tom Trbojevic. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Canterbury Bulldogs – 18.5
Connor Tracey (3), Matt Burton (4.5), Toby Sexton (3), Reed Mahoney (4.5), Depth (3.5).

The Bulldogs have recruited heavily over the last few years but still haven’t landed either a topflight half or fullback. Connor Tracey improved across the 2024 season in the No. jersey but is probably better suited to a running five-eighth role, while half Toby Sexton could best be described as a steady player, rather than one capable of winning a game on his own.

They have plenty of depth though, including the likes of rising star Bailey Hayward and the more experienced Drew Hutchison, Blake Taaffe, Jaeman Salmon, Hayze Perham and Jake Turpin. Maybe Stephen Crichton will end up at fullback?

Cronulla Sharks – 18
Will Kennedy (3.5), Braydon Trindall (4), Nicho Hynes (4.5), Blayke Brailey (4), Depth (2).

The Sharks have a very handy spine with Hynes the obvious standout, but a lot will depend on both how Braydon Trindall performs this year and whether fullback Will Kennedy can hold off the challengers for his number one jersey in Kade Dykes and Liam Ison.

Lock forward Cameron McInnes will fill in at hooker when required and super-sub Daniel Atkinson will be looking to have another strong season after his break-out year in 2024. They don’t have a lot of spine depth beyond those mentioned.

Newcastle Knights – 18
Kalyn Ponga (5), Tyson Gamble (3), Phoenix Crossland (3), Jayden Brailey (3.5), Depth (3.5).

Ponga is clearly the ace in the Knights’ pack, and Jayden Brailey is a very good hooker, but their expected halves pairing in Tyson Gamble and Phoenix Crossland won’t strike fear into the opposition.

If Ponga doesn’t play a lot more than the 16 games per season that he’s averaged over the last four seasons, then Newcastle just won’t score enough points to be any sort of threat.

Kalyn Ponga. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

The spine depth comprises journeymen Jack Cogger and Jackson Hastings, exciting winger Fletcher Sharpe who will cover for Ponga when he inevitably gets injured, rookie hookers Riley Jones and Matt Arthur, and Englishman Will Pryce, who just might find himself wearing the No.6 jersey before too long.

North Queensland Cowboys – 17
Scott Drinkwater (3.5), Tom Dearden (5), Jake Clifford (3), Reece Robson (4.5), Depth (1).

The starting spine is more than competent, with both Dearden and Robson going to a new level in 2024, but the departure of veterans Chad Townsend and Jake Granville, and the loss of young Tom Chester to injury for the 2025 season will leave the Cowboys very much exposed in the event of injury to their 1, 6, 7 or 9.

Reuben Cotter has played hooker before, Karl Lawton can play a role at dummy half but is a very big step down from Robson, Jaxon Purdue played in the halves before debuting as a centre, and the Cowboys hold high hopes for rookie halfback Tom Duffy.

Dolphins – 17
Hamiso Tabui-Fidow (5), Kodi Nikorima (3.5), Isayia Katoa (3.5), Jeremy Marshall-King (3), Depth (2).

The Dolphins’ spine has come a long way in a couple of years, fullback Hamiso Tabui-Fidow is now one of the most dangerous ball runners in the game, the halves pairing of Kodi Nikorima and Isayia Katoa looks settled, and they have found a good one in Max Plath, although perhaps he’ll find himself at lock with Jeremy Marshall-King returning to hooker.

Spine depth looks somewhat limited though, with just Sean O’Sullivan, rookie hooker Harrison Graham, and Kurt Donoghoe left to plug any gaps, while exciting fullback Trai Fuller will most likely miss the first half of the season recovering from his knee injury.

New Zealand Warriors – 16.5
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (4), Luke Metcalf (3), Te Maire Martin (3), Wayde Egan (4), Depth (2.5).

Shaun Johnson’s departure is a big loss for the Warriors and this year’s spine doesn’t look to have the penetration to worry the top teams. CNK’s form isn’t what it was, Luke Metcalf still has his L plates on at five-eighth and Te Maire Martin hasn’t had a lot of experience at halfback.

Tanah Boyd and Freddy Lussick provide some experienced depth, with both Dylan Walker and Erin Clark able to play dummy half if required, and exciting young fullback Taine Tuaupiki will be hoping for the chance to cement a first-grade spot before the season’s out.

South Sydney Rabbitohs – 16
Latrell Mitchell (4.5), Cody Walker (4), Lewis Dodd (2.5), Peter Mamouzelos (2), Depth (3).

With a halfback new to the NRL and a hooker new to a starting role, Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker will be called on to do most of the heavy lifting once again if Souths’ attack is to fire. Don’t be surprised to find Walker wearing the No.7 jersey and Wighton at five-eighth again at some stage this year, and new Coach Wayne Bennett might be tempted to play Dodd off the bench to ease him into the big time.

Cody Walker. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

They have some solid backup for their spine with Wighton an accomplished five-eighth, an exciting hooking prospect in Jamie Humphreys, and the likes of Jye Gray, Siliva Havili, Jayden Sullivan and Josh Schuster all with first-grade experience, although I suspect that Schuster will be playing in the back row rather than at No.6 under Bennett.

Sydney Roosters – 16
James Tedesco (5), Sandon Smith (3), Chad Townsend (3), Connor Watson (4), Depth (1).

With both Sam Walker and Brandon Smith unlikely to return from injury until the competition’s well underway, the Roosters will hope that their expected starting spine can remain injury-free and strike up some sort of combination, as they virtually have no one else to call on in their top 30 roster other than rookies Tyler Moriarty and Toby Rodwell.

They do, however, have considerable space remaining in their roster, and no doubt some more room in their salary cap, so watch for some further signings from left field before round one commences, or perhaps they’ll go early and promote one or more of their development players?

Gold Coast Titans – 16
Keano Kini (4), AJ Brimson (3.5), Kieran Foran (3.5), Sam Verrills (3), Depth (2).

Foran and Verrills certainly know what’s required of them and can deliver the goods week in and week out, fullback Kini is an absolute excitement machine in attack, while Brimson will have a fight on his hands from the elusive Jayden Campbell for the No.6 jersey.

They really lack depth in the spine though, with only the versatile Chris Randall, untested Wallaby convert Carter Gordon and the rookie pair of Ryder Williams and Zane Harrison to offer support.

Canberra Raiders – 15.5
Kaeo Weekes (3.5), Ethan Strange (3), Jamal Fogarty (4), Danny Levi (3), Depth (2).

Both Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange show lots of promise but they’re far from the finished article, and coach Ricky Stuart will have both fingers crossed that star half Jamal Fogarty can play more than the 14 games he managed last year.

Seb Kris and wingers Xavier Savage and Albert Hopoate can all fill in capably at fullback if required, but with only Tom Starling and youngsters Chevy Stewart and Ethan Sanders in reserve, the depth is looking very thin, and injuries to key players could spell disaster for the Raiders.

St George-Illawarra Dragons – 15.5
Clint Gutherson (4), Kyle Flanagan (3), Lachlan Ilias (2.5), Damien Cook (4), Depth (2).

Kyle Flanagan is the lone survivor from the Dragons’ 2024 spine, and he’ll need to really step now that Ben Hunt’s gone. Fortunately, he’s been joined by two very experienced competitors Clint Gutherson and Damien Cook, who’ll be able to take some of the pressure off.

Clint Gutherson at the Eels. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)

Spine depth options are limited to the much-improved Jacob Liddle, the hot and cold Tyrell Sloan, youngsters Lyhkan King-Togia and Jonah Glover, and fullback Corey Allan who missed the entire 2024 season through injury.

Parramatta Eels – 15
Isaiah Longi (1), Dylan Brown (5), Mitchell Moses (5), Brendan Hands (3), Depth (1).

The big question with the Eels spine is who is new fullback Isaiah Longi, and whether he can play. Time will tell I guess, but their only backup plan for the No.1 jersey looks to be either Sean Russell or Zac “I only want to play centre” Lomax who have just three NRL games at fullback between them, or another rookie signing in Joash Papalii.

Beyond these two stopgaps, their only spine depth looks to be experienced hooker Joey Lussick, halfback Dean Hawkins and halfback Ronald Volkman who played the last of his five first-grade games in September 2023.

New coach Jason Ryles will be praying that both Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown have fully recovered from their injuries and don’t miss too many games between them this year.

Now, if I’ve got these ratings anywhere near right, and if the relative strength of a team’s spine is a reliable indicator of how they’ll perform during the season, then the top four this year should come from Melbourne, Penrith, Brisbane, Wests, Manly and Canterbury.

Hang on, did I say Wests?

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, the Raiders, Eels and Dragons will be fighting it out for the spoon.

Is predicting success or failure as simple as this?