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Short Memory

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Joined July 2018

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Just my opinion : )

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Has Papali’i ever played better than under Arthur?

Point to prove: Each NRL club's man on a mission in 2025

I wouldn’t cross your nan DP. 😱

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Broncos - Maguire on mission to put steel in show ponies but injury, ban raise questions

Class player. Sorry to see him go.

'Dealing with pain in everyday life': 'Devastated' Warriors captain's shock retirement call

Didn’t read what was written?

Take your eyes off the stat sheet and watch/em>
It’s poor assessment to analyse effort from a print out

Any time someone disagrees with you assume that they haven’t actually watched the game or player in question. It’s kind of patronising.

I didn’t saying Lomax was a stand out in every game of his career. Like every player he’s had his ups and downs. And like all players he has strengths and weaknesses. All I said was that there is no evidence that he is lazy and plenty of evidence to the contrary. Then I provided some of that evidence – not all of which was stats.

If Lomax lacked “representative attitude” prior to 2024 it’s a head scratcher how he got selected for Blues U18s, won NSWRL’s Under 18s Player of the Year, was selected for Prime Minister’s XIII and Junior Kangaroos, and included in the Emerging Blues camp.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

No argument with any of that. My comment was directly and solely in response to the assertion that Lomax was lazy. Neither the stats nor the Dally M’s (best available measure of objective, expert eye test) support that assertion.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Dude, you’ve got to come up with a new argument. 😂
Maybe you should watch them with both eyes open.
Dally Ms are 100% eye test, from expert observers. Hunt was the only Dragon on the leaderboard. Lomax won Dally M positional award. Anyone with two eyes open could see they were consistently among the Dragons’ best, trying their guts out and getting results more often than not. You’re not obliged to like them personally, but try not to let that cloud your judgement.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Young Humphreys is going to be something special. But would have benefited from a season working in with Cookie.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Hope for Dragons fans’ sake you’re right about Fifita and Tonga.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

100% Jimmmy. Val is their best buy by a mile.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Can’t see a world where he makes the bench ahead of Taupau.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Broncos - Maguire on mission to put steel in show ponies but injury, ban raise questions

Lomax lazy? You don’t have to like the guy. But seriously. 😂
Of all Dragons backs, Lomax contributed:
Most runs
Most run metres
Most tackle breaks
Most line breaks
Most tries
Most offloads
And won Dally M winger of the year.
You don’t achieve any of that, let alone all of it, if you’re lazy.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Agree. I know some folks on here are resistant to stats, but the two team stats most closely correlated with a successful season are Run Metres and Run Metres Conceded.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/news/nrl-stats-that-matter-running-metres

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/stats-all-folks-the-piece-of-data-that-holds-the-key-to-nrl-success-20220723-p5b3yf.html

Unfortunately for the Dragons, they had the fourth worst Run Metres and the fifth worst Run Metres Conceded of all teams in 2024. They have not recruited in the middle, so they are relying on the same pack as last year to do better… meanwhile some of the teams that performed worse in this area last season have have improved their middle roster for 2025.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Not sure about that Eels comparison BG.
Eels halves Moses & Brown would have to be in the top 4 of any objective ranking of NRL halves pairs.
Dragons halves Ilias & Flanagan would be in the bottom 4, with maybe only the Knights halves pairing having demonstrated less ability to lead a team around and get points on the board.
Gutho is legend and a solid leader. Eels in comparison have a complete rookie in Iongi. But he’s a rookie who has been stuck behind arguably the best FB in the game, and would have been a starter already at most other clubs. While one game is too small a sample to read much into, it does give you an idea of what he’s capable of. His one game last year he ran for 256 metres (basically double Gutho’s average), made 8 tackle breaks (4 times Gutho’s average), tackled at 100% and scored a try. So he goes okay – not unlike Kini at the Titans or Fa’alogo at Storm.
Cook and Liddle for Dragons are arguably a top 4 pairing at DH. For the Eels, Hands is a stopgap. Pretty meat and potatoes in his play. But Moses and Brown don’t need another creative playmaker. They just need decent service and someone who can tackle.

Round 1 Predicted Teams: Dragons - half a headache for Flanagan to reach finals

Agree 100%. I think the same could be said for Cleary. Parachuted into a club with Nathan, Luai, Fish, Critta, Yeo, Kikau, Martin, To’o all ready to hit their prime. While the Broncos squad isn’t quite in that league, it’s still stacked with prime footballing talent.

New Year's resolutions for every NRL club to live up to their promise in 2025

For a bit of perspective we could compare Maguire’s Souths and Tigers combined record with Ivan Cleary’s combined Warriors and Tigers record:

Maguire:
Souths 153 games for 55.56% win rate. (Best finish GF win, worst 12)
Tigers 80 games for 36.25% win rate. (Best finish 9, worst 13)
Combined win rate 48.93%

Cleary:
Warriors 150 games for 50% win rate. (Best finish GF loss, worst 14)
Tigers 43 games for 41.86% win rate. (Best finish 9, worst 14)
Combined win rate 45.93%

Cleary has done significantly better with the Panthers. Because they are a much more talented squad than either of his previous teams.

The Broncos squad Maguire has inherited is also hugely talented. We’ve seen pretty unambiguously in Maguire’s rep coaching what he can do with a talented squad. The big question is whether Maguire can temper his intensity and sustain the team’s effort and commitment over a full season. Only time will tell.

New Year's resolutions for every NRL club to live up to their promise in 2025

You are right about ARLC assuming control of the NRL from the NRL Partnership. But incorrect in your assumption that this means they don’t have a right to sanction players or coaches for off field indiscretions. IU established 2013, made independent of club input for its decisions 2019.

NRL hands down lengthy ban for Mam with no All Stars loophole after court issues 'disgraceful slap on the wrist'

Also: Sanctions for breaches like Mam’s are decided and handed down by the NRL Integrity Unit, not the Board. The IU was formed in 2013 and in 2019 given power to decide sanctions for off field incidents, independent of the Clubs, in response to a suggestion from Canberra Raiders.

NRL hands down lengthy ban for Mam with no All Stars loophole after court issues 'disgraceful slap on the wrist'

Let me rephrase. The NRL (a joint venture between the ARL and News Limited) literally owns the brand name NRL, and holds all rights to organise, present and monetise professional Rugby League games in Australia. NRL owns the right to sell the screening rights to the NRL Rugby League competition – which is where the overwhelming majority of clubs’ money comes from. The NRL pays each club the salary cap plus close to $5m dollars.

According to The Daily Telegraph, the funding will rise from approximately $1.62 million above the salary cap per club to around $5 million per club.
All up, the increased funding will see each club receive around $17 or $18 million in funding from league central, taking the total deal to around $306 million.

https://www.zerotackle.com/funding-galore-nrl-clubs-set-to-receive-record-windfall-125295/

Without this funding the clubs could not exist. How the clubs administer that money is of course up to them – within contractual limits negotiated with the NRL. But the NRL retains the contractual right to fine or suspend any participant in the game for publicly damaging the value of their brand as Mam has done. It is 100% their business.

NRL hands down lengthy ban for Mam with no All Stars loophole after court issues 'disgraceful slap on the wrist'

Massive questions have to be asked about their middles and their Halves.

Sure you’re not talking about the Bunnies there William?

Which coaches will be punted in 2025? Fearless predictions for who's safe and the trio on thin ice

The clubs pay the players. But the NRL pays the clubs. They literally own the game.

increased funding will see each club receive around $17 or $18 million in funding from league central
https://www.zerotackle.com/funding-galore-nrl-clubs-set-to-receive-record-windfall-125295/

The NRL owns the brand and relies on public good will to continue profitably sell the brand. They are absolutely within their contractual, fiscal and ethical rights to suspend and fine players and coaches who damage that brand by, in their words, “bringing the game into disrepute”.

Driving unlicensed on drugs and causing a head on collision that injures a child (a collection of offences that Mam admits and which have been proven to the satisfaction of rules of evidence in a court of law) is on the higher end of publicly unacceptable behavior.

Mam is incredibly lucky to only be suspended for nine games.

NRL hands down lengthy ban for Mam with no All Stars loophole after court issues 'disgraceful slap on the wrist'

Holmes is a great attacking player and a definite upgrade. When on song he can be a game breaker. But has always been a bit questionable in defence. In 2024 he averaged 8 tackles a game and 2 missed tackles. TE 72%. Max Feagi averaged 10 tackles and 2 missed tackles. TE 73%. Both have Try Causes recorded at about the same rate.
The difference is Holmes’ 16 tries and 9 assists to Max Feagi’s 0 and 1.

Gutho is supremely fit and a great organiser at the back. His last ditch try savers are infinitely better than Sloan’s feeble attempts in this situation. But, as posted elsewhere, their overall stats for ’24 in both defence and attack are pretty much identical. I’m not convinced that putting Sloan on the wing (where he will face a much greater frequency of one-on-one try-saving demands) is going to help the Dragons defensive record improve.

'Integral to our team': Dragons playmaker earns extension as post-Hunt era begins

Horrible news for the Cows. I’d say this makes a top 8 finish very unlikely.

Cowboys cop triple blow with Taumalolo hobbled by foot injury and two young guns out for season with torn ACLs

Tigers recruiting on the other hand has been on target and should yield nett gain in points and run metres. Plus better defence. And we now have two vacant spots in the top 30 squad to fill, with some money in the cap. I’m confident we’ll be off the bottom of the table by at least two places. Hoping to be out of the bottom 4 if we keep our best team on the park for most of the season.

'Integral to our team': Dragons playmaker earns extension as post-Hunt era begins

Cleary came into first grade in 2016 and played 15 games in the halves. His 5/8 was Bryce Cartwright. Maloney was playing for the Sharks. Cleary was not very productive – totalling 8 try assists.

In 2017, Cleary’s first full season his halves partners were Te Maire Martin, Cartwrght, Matt Moylan and Tyrone May. Maloney was still at the Sharks. Cleary managed 10 Try Assists.

Maloney joined Panthers in 2018 and partnered Cleary in the halves. Cleary recorded 9 Try Assists.
2019 Moloney again. 9 assists again.
2020 Luai takes over as 5/8. Cleary’s assists jump to 17. (Not because Luai was taking the ball less than Maloney – he topped the league for assists that year with 23.)

Make of that what you will, but my read is that Cleary wasn’t so much stifled by Maloney as he was unlocked by Luai. And possibly the team bedding into Ivan’s system. His numbers were pretty consistent from 2016 until then.

'Integral to our team': Dragons playmaker earns extension as post-Hunt era begins

Sloan’s nervous / inept one-on-one (non) try-saving tackles tend to stick in the memory. Gutho is much better in that situation. And maybe Sloan’s higher tackle count says more about the porous defence of the first line of Dragons’ defence than it says about Sloan… and I’d be pretty certain it says more about Gutho’s ability to marshal the defensive structure in front of him.

Origin stars, premiership winners and internationals: The best NRL buys for 2025