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Opinion
It’s been a Steven Bradbury-like performance by the Knights.
After being as low as 13th on the ladder after the midway point in the season, they have now set up a mouth-watering last-round shootout with the Dolphins for that highly sought-after eighth spot on the ladder.
Win and they play finals, lose and the players head to Mad Monday – their fate is in their own hands.
As much as the Newcastle team has clicked in attack over the past few weeks, playing in a similar way to last year, the opportunity to qualify for the finals has opened up because of the fall, or inconsistency, of the other teams competing for those last spot.
Not only is it a matter of the Knights improving at the right time of year, but also the mediocre performance from other clubs makes the achievement look better than it is.
Few teams have played close to full seasons, with form drop-offs too common and often – and the teams from eighth down have lost more games than they have won. The bottom eight are all in the negative in terms of for and against.
This week, Wayne Bennett returns to one of his old haunts, with his side dropping off significantly at the back end of the year, from holding a spot in the eight from Round 2 until Round 22 – the Redcliffe-based side even led the competition in the early rounds.
But the expansion club has finished the year winning just three out of their past 10 games, so if they do cling to eighth they will be limping over the line as well.
The Dragons and Raiders had high hopes of playing finals, and while they are thereabouts, neither really built any momentum or consistency that deserved a spot. Both would need major miracles to play finals – including a draw in the Knights-Dolphins game.
The Titans, Souths and Warriors also had very slim outside chances – but were ruled out of contention weeks ago. The Broncos are the latest team to bow out despite Kevin Walters’ bold prediction that they’d be there.
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That’s allowed the Knights to slowly chip away at the places ahead of them. They’ve managed to regain enough form at the right time to set up an exciting finish to their 2024 campaign under the radar of many.
Finals are often seen as a pass mark for clubs in whether they have had a successful season, but in this ‘below-par’ year where it’s been riddled with underperformance – will a top-eight spot just wallpaper over the cracks at Newcastle?
Just weeks ago, it was reported that coach Adam O’Brien needed his team to finish 12th or higher this season to activate the last two years of his new contract extension.
He may have dodged a bullet in relation to ladder position, but it may not be the end of Newcastle’s problems as a club – with or without him.
On-field performance aside, the biggest mistake by the former Roosters assistant coach appears to have been with his roster management.
The Knights went all out in signing star Kalyn Ponga, who is reportedly the highest-paid in the competition, on an estimated $1.4 million a year for five years.
Now, they are starting to feel the pinch. The reigning Dally M Medallist has battled injury over the past few seasons and only played 14 games in 26 rounds this year, scoring three tries in his 94 points.
With Newcastle not getting as much as they should from Ponga, it has created a hole in terms of having a backup playmaker.
Jack Cogger joined the club from premiers Penrith, to join Jackson Hastings and Tyson Gamble. Then late in the season, Phoenix Crossland made the move into the halves with Cogger in what appears to delivered some success.
Hastings, who was touted as the marquee halfback in the side, has been dropped and is playing NSW Cup and Gamble played just 12 games in 2024 before suffering another injury a fortnight ago, sidelining him even further. Eight times this year the halves combination changed.
Bradman Best’s Origin selection would justify extra bonuses in his deal, but who else at the club has proven that they are worth the top-level money?
The salary cap is not just squeezing the Knights, but biting – hard.
Four regular first-grade forwards Daniel Saifiti, Adam Elliott, Jayden Brailey and Jack Hetherington were told they could look for homes at other clubs.
Kiwi prop Leo Thompson now looks like he could be heading for the exit a year early.
Even though he signed his deal around the time of his State of Origin appearance for New South Wales, Saifiti alone is reported to be on $800,000 a year as a front-rower – with the Dolphins said to be hesitant to pick him up and talks with the Dragons apparently stalled.
If these players do leave, who will replace them, especially in experience?
Newcastle will either have to take a less-experienced player for less money – or go to the junior development system. Either will set them back a season or two from where they are now. Especially, with new teams on the horizon in the NRL’s near future, finding ‘quality’ or developed players on the market is going to get tougher and tougher.
The Knights’ main problem has been the players not living up to their potential and the price tag the club paid for them, as the coach keeps tries shifting the magnets to trying desperately to find some sort of winning formula.
Was it bad player selection or a bad culture at the club that isn’t pushing players hard enough to reach their potential?
The Knights have had no more injuries than other clubs, notwithstanding the blow with Ponga who they rely heavily on – but this can be no excuse.
The Knights. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
The consistently top clubs such as the Panthers, Roosters and Storm seem to have a winning culture and next-man-up mentality. So when a player is out or injured there isn’t so much of an impact to the overall team’s form.
After five seasons in charge of the club, O’Brien is still trying to find that winning combination – whether that be rotating the current squad through a hundred different combinations, or buying whoever is left on the market in hope.
The Knights were impressive in 2023, surging home last year to make it to the second week of the semis – it should have been a building block upwards. The Novocastrians should have come into 2024 with plenty of cohesion, connection and confidence, ready and firing.
Instead, they dropped three of the first four games and were chasing their tail ever since.
It wasn’t until, ironically, Ponga’s first injury of the year that Newcastle gained some form – winning four straight – and were only brought back to earth by a red-hot Bulldogs, who held the Knights try-less at home.
It’s not what you expect from a team who have had many years to ‘build’ – no, not rebuild – and from a coach who has been at a club since 2020.
Underperforming players, inconsistent on-field form and contracts above what players should be paid have all resulted in talent having to leave the club and nothing to show for it success-wise. At least at Penrith’s departure door, players are leaving with premiership rings.
The coach must take a significant portion of the blame, as the one responsible for having a team physically and mentally prepared each week, with a competitive game plan.
Luck may deliver Newcastle a finals berth against all odds; and once they are there, who knows how far they will go.
But unless the club’s coaching staff can quickly sort out this roster and get some consistency, they could be headed for a continuous downward spiral.
It may not just be O’Brien looking for a new job, it may require another knock-down/rebuild debacle last seen after the Bennett-Nathan Tinkler era – that’s if they are not headed that way already.
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