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It is that time of the year again. With the AFL season about to draw to a close, we can finally look ahead to our grand final match-up.
The first ever, State-of-Origin style GF is not Victoria’s dream but it’s still a compelling contest.
Two clubs that have been a measuring stick of success for numerous years, both with strong built-in club cultures and points of success for the AFL’s national game.
But both are also connected by recent September heartbreak, with Sydney being the runners-up in 2022, and the Lions just falling short in 2023.
Neither Geelong nor Collingwood is there to bring back any grand final PTSD, and what the fans have on their hands is what should be a high-scoring tight game.
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From the Sydney side of things, this game has been the clear expectation from about Round 5. The Swans announced themselves as contenders again with a standout performance in the opening round against the Dees.
From then on, the minor premiers looked like an unstoppable juggernaut for most of the season, with the dangerous midfield trio of Issac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden leading the way.
But like most teams, the Swans met their struggles: a 100-point loss to Port here, losing to the Saints there. Was anyone really expecting the Swans to go 23-0 this year though? I certainly wasn’t.
Isaac Heeney takes a contested mark. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Brisbane on the other hand had a far bumpier road to the grand final, filled with ACL tears and sputters of form.
The Lions looked like they were going to join the list of GF losers who failed to make the big dance the next year. Ill be completely honest, I wrote Brisbane off two or three times this season, and I have happily been proven wrong by them.
Brisbane also gave us two of the craziest finals in back-to-back fashion this year to make the Granny: the Joe Daniher heroics and the 44-point comeback that highlighted their semi-final win over the Giants, and then the glorious footy dream that was the Lions prelim against Geelong.
The coaching battle is an interesting one. The Swans’ break-neck ball movement vs the slow kick-mark approach of the Lions.
There are plenty of questions to be answered at the MCG. Like what will Brisbane do to stop James Jordan quelling the influence of Dayne Zorko? Does Dunkley play the same role on Heeney that he played on Jordan De Goey in last year’s game? Is Berry going to play a shutdown role on Gulden? How will Darcy Fort match up with Grundy? Will the Sydney key forwards be able to make Harris Andrews accountable (who will be 2024’s Billy Frampton)?
But I think the game will come down to if Brisbane can stop Sydney’s ball movement up the left-hand side of the ground. With so much of the Swans’ attack out of the backline built to swing it onto the advantaged side of Nick Blakey and Gulden, the Lions will need to put in some kind of team defensive effort to stop it.
Cam Rayner celebrates a goal. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Now for some predictions!
First goalscorer: Zac Bailey
Norm Smith Medal: Chad Warner
Tip: Sydney by 14 points
My tip is informed by what I have seen all year from Sydney; no matter how many of their players are being tagged, they eventually just break through. It happened against the Pies late in the home and away season, and happened again with the Giants in the first week of finals.
The loss of the Big O against Grundy means the Swans midfielders will be getting better service, which could lead to dominant Sydney ball movement and being able to burn the Lions on the counter. But then again, what do I know?
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.