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The AFL grand final is always a massive day for punters, and this year’s decider between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions promises to be as big as ever.
Here’s your guide to the odds for some of the major markets on the AFL’s season finale. Please note all odds are as of Friday, September 27 at 1am (AEST), and are thanks to our good friends at PlayUp.
As always, remember to gamble responsibly if you are having a bet on the grand final.
Head-to-head winner
The Swans have been flag favourites for a while now, and that’s holding true heading into the grand final, with Sydney $1.77 to hoist the premiership cup on Saturday afternoon.
The Lions sit at $2.08, similar odds to what they face last year when they lost to Collingwood in a thrilling grand final.
The line is paying $1.91 at -3.5 – almost identical to last season, suggesting we’ll have a classic grand final on our hands.
Norm Smith Medallist
He might have been ineligible for the Brownlow Medal, but coming in at $5.00, Sydney superstar Isaac Heeney is the outright Norm Smith Medal favourite for Saturday afternoon – and having been best afield in the Swans’ qualifying and preliminary final wins, little wonder.
Behind him is another superstar, two-time Brownlow winner Lachie Neale, who will be hoisting the premiership cup should Brisbane prove victorious. A ball magnet at his best, if Neale gets off the leash, not only could the Lions win, but he’ll be as good a chance as anyone to take home best-afield honours.
Heeney’s star Swans teammates Chad Warner ($8) and Errol Gulden ($8.50) are the only other players in single-figure odds for the Norm Smith, with veteran defender Dayne Zorko ($11) and star Lions midfielder Hugh McCluggage ($13) the others sitting beneath $20.
If you’re looking for a roughie, Brodie Grundy ($23) might be your best bet; facing the Lions’ second ruckman in Darcy Fort due to Oscar McInerney’s shoulder injury, the first-year Swan has a golden chance to stamp his authority on the grand final – and complete one of the more remarkable player journeys in recent memory.
Check out the full list of Norm Smith Medal odds, thanks to PlayUp.
First goalscorer
As he was in the 2023 decider, Lions leading goalkicker Joe Daniher is the favourite to boot the first goal of the grand final, coming in at $9.50 – narrowly ahead of star teammate Charlie Cameron ($11).
However, the next four shortest-odds candidates are all Swans, with goalsneak Tom Papley ($11), spearhead Joel Amartey ($12) and mid-sized forward Will Hayward ($12) all good chances of beginning the grand final in the best possible way.
Most interesting, goalkicking midfielder Chad Warner is also short odds at $13; while at the other end of the scale, Lions wingman Jarrod Berry ($41) and Swans tough nut James Rowbottom ($41) are the major roughies.
Check out the full list of first goalscorer odds, thanks to PlayUp.
All odds are correct as at 1am (AEST) on Friday, September 27.
As always, stay on The Roar tonight for live scores and commentary, video highlights and the best post-game analysis going around.
PlayUp is a proudly Australian-owned bookmaker with the best customer service in the business. Think you can play? Go on, take them on. Please gamble responsibly.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.