Opinion
Collingwood’s pursuit of Dan Houston is logical, and criticising a team going all in for another flag flies in the face of what this competition is all about.
Since entering the conversation around the Port star, critics have come out in full force against the Magpies seeking to use up more draft capital to recruit an experienced player, rather than replenishing their seemingly evaporating young talent pool.
Now, Collingwood’s not the perfect team and there were definite drop-offs experienced by the group, but they’re still within their own premiership window and rightfully see this as an opportunity to pounce on it.
In the AFL, you’re either winning the flag – or setting up to try and win the flag. That point is lost in the minutiae of daily speculation.
Collingwood wants to win another flag, so be it, they can.
The competition as things stand is so even. Clubs will inevitably overvalue their lists, as realistically, there can’t be 12 contenders at one time.
It means that any move in the list management space is risky, as the downside is considerable.
No team knows that more than the Magpies, having given up a future first for Lachie Schultz that quite frankly, would look pretty good to have in their own possession right now.
All season long we were fed the information from all corners of how badly Collingwood stuffed up in trading such a valuable piece for Schultz and certainly, we’re hardly going to sit around celebrating it as an overwhelming success.
It felt overs at trade time, it ended up being too valuable a pick, although as we enter these very same conversations around Richmond players in particular, clubs have to overpay to get their targets.
Just like any team, things could’ve panned out quite differently for the Magpies.
Every club has its ebbs and flows, its big “what ifs” and the season panned out how it panned out, but when Collingwood extended its lead out to over four goals at the start of the final quarter in the Round 22 clash against Sydney, finals seemed entirely possible.
Dan Houston celebrates a goal. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
They hold onto that lead, they finish in eighth position and who’s to say what happens there – beating the eventual premiers away from home would’ve been a tough task but entirely possible and we know that pick they gave to Fremantle would have moved at least a little deeper into the first round.
Regardless, the intent behind the recruitment of Schultz was correct and quite frankly, was a success.
Collingwood won the flag in 2023, but they barely held on. They were so good during the year with their second-half separation from the opposition, but to get to that point was rough on the group.
They ranked a clear 16th in 2023 for tackles inside 50, averaging just 9.5 a game.
They were great at generating scores from turnovers and by creating pressure, but none of it was coming from the forward line.
Locking the ball in attacking 50 was a clear deficiency and a trait that could help make things a bit easier in 2024.
It did improve this season, largely on the back of Schultz, who is second for tackles inside 50 over the last three years.
They jumped up to eighth, averaging 11.1 tackles inside 50 per game and became a top-four team at generating scores from the forward half.
It’s easy to criticise the Magpies for having missed finals following their premiership win, but the truth is, this was a pretty good team overall that had a decent season.
If we can’t accept some bad injury luck or want to pile pressure onto the skipper or other underperformers, then that only acts as a boost to how well they ended up doing, just missing finals with that negative tint.
They also went from being the most accurate team in the AFL to the sixth-least accurate, despite generating more shots on goal per game.
That tends to even out in the end.
It brings us to Houston, with all the talk that to get the deal done, Collingwood will have to act separately and in the end, forgo another future first-round pick. Business has made even riskier by how 2024 panned out for them.
Members of the media hate it and openly criticise the move, which is fine. Stats people point out how old this list is, they point to the unproven younger players that are around, which too, is fine.
That then would indicate Collingwood’s intention is to win another flag, which once again, is fine.
Yes, there’s a reliance on a lot of players over 30, but until they offer a reason not to keep going back to the well, it’s almost illogical for the Magpies’ hierarchy to just flip on its plans halfway through.
They improved their offensive pressure in a sustainable way. Now, it’s about recapturing their transition game and being really effective in generating inside 50s and scores from the defensive half, and really, improving on the state of it from the premiership year.
We don’t know for sure if Houston will end up at Collingwood, but he’s exactly the right target for them to transform the transition game.
Magpies Coach Craig McRae on the bench. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
In 2024, the Magpies won the ball the third least of any club and were well below the league average for inside 50s.
Not that they were all that good at it in 2023 either, they were right on the average for inside 50s, but it just didn’t work for them this season.
Over the last two seasons, Houston has been the best pure half-back in the entire competition at generating scores whether directly or as a key member of scoring chains.
He has averaged the most inside 50s for his position during that time too, as well as being in the top seven for metres gained, all while being one of the most efficient kicks in the league.
The 27-year-old is rated elite for his tackling, his pressure numbers through the defensive half offer an improvement on what the Magpies currently have and he has shown in the past, the ability to roll through the midfield in a way that should certainly be utilised.
It’s really hard to quantify how good Houston is, despite being a dual All-Australian, mainly because his style of play is so unique.
But also, his traits are the absolute perfect fit for a Collingwood team that is ever so clearly seeking to match its transition game with its improved forward pressure game in the bid to win another flag, that the fact this move is even being questioned is bewildering.
It doesn’t move Collingwood into premiership favouritism necessarily, should this venture be successful.
The defence did drop off, even though the underlying numbers only had a slight backward slide from 2023 – they conceded too many inside 50s ultimately and the lack of a genuine lockdown defender after Nathan Murphy’s retirement saw the intercept game fall off a cliff. The rest was okay.
Offensively, they still lack that big presence. Jack Hayes is rumoured to be joining which is nice, but between him, Dan McStay and Brody Mihocek, the bodies will need to hold up. Jamie Elliott too, and maybe Jordan De Goey spends more time forward.
Yes, it’s an older group, but Collingwood still has the best young player in the league, the 21-year-old Nick Daicos, and players like Ed Allan, Harvey Harrison, Jakob Ryan and even up to Beau McCreery and Bobby Hill, there are long-term talents around.
Targeting Houston is great when there’s the potential rotation on occasion through the middle with new recruit Harry Perryman, who has his best years ahead of him too and is a nice piece to add to the midfield.
But Craig McRae’s version of the Magpies isn’t about big names or playing a traditional style of footy. He initially tried to build his brand of footy, reached the ultimate success and has since been trying to tweak it.
They needed forward pressure, they got their man and are much improved. They needed more grunt in the middle, so they signed their big free agent.
Now, they need to connect defence with attack and be decisive and direct through the middle, to ensure that they can lock the ball inside the forward 50 more often, push their defenders up and really squeeze down the opposition.
That’s what Collingwood will try to do in 2025. Dan Houston is that man.
Whether they’re successful from the front of the line or not, Collingwood offering up another future first-round pick to recruit their perfect player is absolutely the right move for a club in their premiership window.
It’s all about intent at the top end and the Magpies are unafraid.
We should commend teams trying to land their perfect targets, not criticise them for taking a chance.
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