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The Swans are expected to handle Port Adelaide comfortably and really, win the premiership in 2024.
That’s hardly a revolutionary statement, but it’s one that tends to irk the nervous fans and perhaps even players of whichever team carries all that weight, following a successful overall home-and-away season where they finish a game and percentage clear atop the ladder.
It really leaves us with the question, can the Swans handle the pressure of expectation?
The qualifying final felt like just heightened version of much of what we’ve seen of the Swans this season.
Slow start, the opposition fully in control, Swans start to wrestle back momentum and all of a sudden, take over in the last quarter and a bit and win.
Was it a lucky victory? Certainly the Giants’ ability to hold onto leads hasn’t aged well, but for the most part, the Swans have proven that they can run out games well in 2024.
Now, Sydney’s seen as a team that really should comfortably walk into the Grand Final. The view is that Port played theirs last week and their ability to back it up is quite unlikely, it’s certainly an opinion held here.
Any counterargument to Sydney’s favouritism that references their eight-game losing streak to the Power should immediately be shut down and ignored. By now we must know that every moment in sport is in isolation.
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If in September, a streak is the defining factor for wins and losses, let’s just pack it all up.
But what can be cited is the way in which the Power have tended to be victorious in these games, done through immense tackling pressure and a level of aerial security that has been difficult for Sydney to manage.
First off, we know that this fixture resulted in a near 20-goal margin earlier this year. If we’re all happy to label it an aberration of epic proportions result-wise, one that absolutely should not take anything away from this week’s visitors, but not an outcome to take a lot from, then we can leave it there.
Port’s contested marking and ability to hit targets inside 50 has been a big problem for Sydney to defend previously.
Offensively, the Power has often been too big and strong, or the outlet kicks have been marked handily by their bigs.
The loss of Callum Mills is huge, bigger than is being acknowledged in the media, because all the focus seems to be on the result or what Port can do to win, more than Sydney’s absence.
Mills’ positioning is probably his biggest strength. Whether it’s defending marking contests or closing speed, or even just being a calming presence around contested situations, he’s a key player.
Just generally, the Swans have been poor in defending contested marks in their last five games, as well as how often they let marks occur inside 50 – they’re in the bottom five in both categories.
For as important as it has been in the past though, it’s been something Port Adelaide has struggled to do – they’re ranked at league average for contested marks and have dropped off completely with their ability to hit targets inside 50, ranking in the bottom four.
So then it leaves the pressure game, and it’s nigh on impossible for the Power to recreate the tackling numbers of their midfield group of last game, but it doesn’t stop Sydney’s from crashing into the opposition’s bodies.
It doesn’t prevent James Rowbottom’s hunting, inevitably the midfield minutes Luke Parker will see will have him targeting Zak Butters.
Isaac Heeney’s desperation around the ball can be epic defensively, but protected well offensively. He’s hard to catch and the blocking of Sydney’s inside midfielders should help create the space.
Willem Drew’s a genuine problem, an underappreciated midfielder across the league as one of the premier tacklers, but one with a much-improved fitness base that lets him cover the ground well. That’s all Port’s got though – the rest of their tacklers prefer it in the contest, not spread.
So we talk about the expectation again, with the knowledge that this version of the Swans can handle this version of Port, where the strengths and weakness have begun to align, perhaps better than ever before.
Luke Parker celebrates a goal. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
It leads to the question as to whether Sydney’s offence can maximise whatever struggles Port’s high defensive line tend to experience and really put the opposition in a position to be overwhelmed and confused.
Can Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean finally step up together? Can Tom Papley break the shackles of a terrible record against a Power team that struggled to curtail the impact of Nick Watson last week?
The same question is asked of Will Hayward, who funnily enough only truly struggles against two teams, both from his native South Australia.
This is where we see whether the Swans are truly up to the challenge of winning, or if they’re going to rely on Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner again offensively in unsustainable fashion.
Port Adelaide is missing its two best users out of defence, who perform vital roles in the way they attack. Logan Evans and Jase Burgoyne stood up beautifully last week. Ryan Burton was in there previously, but isn’t as effective or adept at the defensive positioning.
Sydney must match the Power’s pressure game and get the ball forward at all costs. The high-line restricts the inside 50s the opposition can get. The class of the Swans around stoppages can beat that.
Joel Amartey celebrates his ninth goal. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It forces Port Adelaide to push deeper to regain possession try and stop the opposition from scoring. The Power wants to retain possession and attack from higher up, and without tackling pressure from the forwards, it’s a much easier way for them to have excellent ball use from the back, get it in their forward half and lock it in.
Over their last five matches, the Swans are ranked equal last for tackles inside 50. It’s not been a strength all season but it has completed dropped off in recent times for them.
We know that the pressure around the ball is fine, we know defensively they can jockey for position and harass the opposition into making mistakes and turnovers, but if they don’t kick goals, the opposition can depart the defensive 50 with ease.
Port wants to use precise kicking out of defence and create pressure in attack. These are their new focuses in how they want to beat Sydney, having dropped off in the aerial aspect of the game.
So the weight of expectation rests heavily on the shoulders of the Swans and particularly, their forwards.
Not just their ability to create shots and drag Port Adelaide’s defenders into different spots, not just in hitting the scoreboard, but tackling and applying pressure like their season is over if they don’t – because if they’re not up to it, it will be.
The pressure in being favoured to win, the pressure in playing a team that for all intents and purposes, has nothing to lose, the pressure in delivering on what the fans have been hoping for all season.
It all rests on the pressure the players themselves can transfer over to the Power on the field.
The Swans have been the team in the lead for the entire season, but all results to this point have, for better or for worse, ultimately been footballing posturing to this point.
We’re at preliminary final weekend, ahead of that one day in September, the one day Sydney has long been expected to appear in and ultimately, reach the ultimate success.
This Port game is being treated as a fait accompli.
Let’s see if the Swans can handle that weight of expectation.