At the same time the 2024 ASEAN Championship is happening, the 26th Arabian Gulf Cup, featuring two of Australia’s main opponents in group C, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, have already found the finalists after two fascinating semi-final encounters before the arrival of new year.

Green Falcons shot down in surprise defeat to Oman

Due to the ongoing 2026 World Cup qualifiers and Saudi Arabia’s mediocre showing, it made sense for the Saudis to bring in all the best players. Saudi media also wanted Herve Renard to win the competition by all cost in order to restore the pride for the Saudi side.

But after just the end of the group stages, Firas Al-Buraikan and Saleh Al-Shehri were both ruled out due to injuries, forcing Renard to call up Belgium-based Marwan Al-Sahafi.

Their opponents, Oman, were no strangers. They had played multiple times recently, Saudi Arabia won four times and lost just once; even when Saudi Arabia lost in the same Gulf Cup back in 2023, they brought a relatively inexperienced squad, with only Ziyad Al-Sahafi having more than ten caps for the Falcons and Riyadh Sharahili featured in Saudi Arabia’s 2022 World Cup run.

Moreover, Oman’s coach, Rashid Jaber Al-Yafai, was a nobody, with very little profile about him and his mediocre 2026 WCQ record. Defeating Oman was just a matter of time, or so they thought.

Mitch Duke. (Photo by Mike Owen/Getty Images)

Yet to the disbelief of the Saudi contingents, the Omanis were different. A red card on Rabia Al-Alawi should have become an advantage for the Saudis, and it seemed the Green Falcons were coming closer when Abdullah Al-Hamdan scored a goal in the 60th minute that was denied by VAR.

Instead, the disallowed goal kickstarted Oman’s comeback; a thunderous low free kick by Arshad Al-Alawi beat Mohammed Al-Owais to score the game’s first goal at the 74th minute, before a brilliant throw-in by Jameel Al-Yahmadi saw Ali Al-Busaidi double Oman’s lead from Abdulrahman Al-Mushaifri’s assist ten minutes later.

Mohamed Kanno reduced the deficit for the Saudis with a superb strike from outside the box, but it proved to be the final goal of the match.

To add further woes, Saudi Arabia only got red-faced in injury time because of an uncontrollable moment of Abdulelah Hawsawi, who fouled Thani Al-Rushadi in Oman’s box. This result also meant that Saudi Arabia’s quest to be crowned the champions of the tournament for the first time since 2003 unfulfilled; Renard also tried his luck back in the 2019 edition in Qatar, only for Bahrain to deny them the regional silverware.

Bahrain marched on to the final against the meek hosts

The second semi-final featured Kuwait, the hosts and also the most successful team in the tournament, up against the 2019 champions Bahrain. Given Juan Antonio Pizzi’s side had already been rated low, reaching the semis was a major success so far.

But Kuwait’s next challengers, Bahrain, had been the pain to Kuwaiti ambitions in recent years. Since smashing them 6-1 in the third place match of the Gulf Cup back in 2013, Kuwait had registered just two other wins, while losing four and drawing three.

Even more notable was that Bahrain had constantly eliminated Kuwait in multiple international competitions. Unsurprisingly, when the match started, raucous home support failed to deter Bahrain’s persistent aggression against the former Asian powerhouses.

Kusini Yengi. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

A red card issued against Mahdi Abduljabbar in early second half should have turned things around for Kuwait, but the Blues proved too timid to capitalise from this golden opportunity.

Exploiting from the gap, the Dilmun Warriors punished the Blues in a pivotal free kick at the 75th minute, with Mohamed Marhoon slotted home in chaos. Only by this point had Kuwait tried to go forward, but inability to find goal cost the Blues a place in the final, as Bahraini players poured into the stadium to celebrate what would be the Dilmun Warriors’ just second final appearance under the new group stage and knockout format of the Gulf Cup.

Saudi Arabia’s fiasco continues after subpar Gulf Cup performance

The loss to Oman wasn’t just disheartening. It sent shockwave to Saudis, many believed Hervé Renard – already deified by Saudis as their god for the win against Argentina in Qatar – would reclaim Saudi Arabia’s football honour.

To make the matter worse, the Saudis brought their best players to the competition, not the second-string team, and were automatically rated as the contenders. It didn’t go their way: a surprise loss to Bahrain, a struggling win over Yemen, and a debatable victory over Iraq, left multiple questions unanswered.

Then, the Oman loss hit the Saudis hard.

Yet their performance suggested why Saudi Arabia are only having six points at the 2026 WCQ. Even they advanced past the group stages, the way they performed was hardly convincing, meaning the loss to Oman was just a matter of time.

The back line, a headache since Roberto Mancini, changed none under Renard 2.0: many of these players like Ali Lajami, Sultan Al-Ghannam or Hassan Al-Tambakti were unable to communicate, with all the burden put into the shoulders of Ali Al-Bulaihi.

The midfield, the cornerstone of Hervé Renard’s pressing gamble, also proved dysfunctional: Musab Al-Juwayr and Mohamed Kanno were the brightest players, but they seemed more suitable in individual operation rather than merging into the wider network; Nasser Al-Dawsari and Abdulelah Al-Malki were invisible, while youngsters were absent.

The forward saw the emergence of Abdullah Al-Hamdan, alleviating pressure for Salem Al-Dawsari; yet Firas Al-Buraikan, Saleh Al-Shehri and Abdullah Radif had underperformed.

Hervé Renard’s love for high-tempo pressing football also poses a major problem unseen. Renard clearly approached his team using the Jurgen Klopp-esque Gegenpressing but with a little baguette into it, Saudi Arabia were not the first team he did.

Yet many of these teams eventually faltered from earlier successes: evidences like Zambia, Morocco or France women’s stay vivid. The Saudi players often played in a very high level of tempo football, but they often left themselves to suffer from the chaos.

In Saudi Arabia’s shock 2-0 loss in Jakarta earlier, Shin Tae-yong identified correctly that Renard’s high-tempo football often made the Falcons vulnerable to counterattacks: goals by Marselino Ferdinan represented what Shin had recognised.

Saudi Arabia are still having some cards for the remaining 2026 WCQ matches, but with China, Japan and Australia clearly watching while Bahrain are waiting them again, the Falcons are desperate for anything they have.

Bahrain remain dangerous but their instability is unravelling

Bahrain have been on a powerful run into the final of the Gulf Cup, with three wins and only one defeat. More impressive was the fact that they beat Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two most powerful teams in Western Asia, proved that their shock win in Gold Coast and a goalless draw in Jeddah to Australia and Saudi Arabia were not flukes.

Yet beneath their success lies an increasing instability the Bahrainis are yet to deal with. To make it carefully, Dragan Talajić’s side sought the Gulf Cup as a compensation after a string of disastrous results in the same 2026 WCQ left Bahrain to the mercy of Japan, China and Indonesia.

The shock 1-0 loss at home to China, where Bahrain tasted their own medicine used in Gold Coast, was chastening enough that Bahrain consider the Gulf Cup win more than anything else for a show of force against the trio in March and June.

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That seemed said easier than done. Japan aren’t Australia or Saudi Arabia and too formidable. Meanwhile, Indonesia came close at snatching a win away, and with Indonesian fans still unwilling to forgive what they saw as a robbery in the 2-2 draw, can make the returning leg a game with high stake.

Then come China, coached by Branko Ivanković, are in a resurgence; to add further woes, Bahrain have never defeated any team coached by Ivanković, including the recent home loss, cementing Ivanković an almost mythical kryptonite to Bahrain’s ambitions.

With Saudi Arabia clearly unstable, Bahrain will want to gamble for six points against Japan, Indonesia and China. But the Gulf Cup is never a great measure to the process.

The Dilmun Warriors remembered this the hard way: after triumphing in the 2019 Gulf Cup, Bahrain looked posed to qualify for the final round of 2022 WCQ, only for Iran to stage a surprise comeback and beat Bahrain 3-0, ending Bahrain’s chance. Look like history is being repeated again.

Are Oman heralding a new era under a domestic coach?

The shock 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia, even with only ten men for three quarters of the match, was masterminded by Rashid Jaber Al-Yafai, a local coach whose quality, until then, remained largely unknown, with his only major triumph being a 3-0 win in the 2022 AFC Cup final for Al-Seeb, the first Omani club to do so.

His 2026 WCQ form was barely convincing either, with Oman levelled in both wins, losses and goals, and still at fourth.

Yet Oman are the biggest surprise in this Gulf Cup. Undefeated en route to the final, Oman put up a decent display, with strong defensive cohesion and brilliant counterattacking. Al-Yafai, being a native, was able to foster trust with the players he worked, many of them came from Al-Seeb.

He also demonstrated his coaching skills by applying a flexible 4-2-3-1 format that could be converted to 4-4-2 in need, allowing cohesion to be maintained. He also entrusted his faith on a number of players, notably the veteran Ali Al-Busaidi, a versatile defender who could also operate as an attacking midfielder, and it was rewarded with Al-Busaidi’s goal against the Saudis.

It is too early to tell if Oman are entering a new era. But Rashid Jaber Al-Yafai can be a fascinating figure in the remainders of the 2026 WCQ, where Oman are trailing behind South Korea, Iraq and Jordan. Al-Yafai’s tactical and man-management skills can be a trump card.

Kuwait’s rebuilding bears fruit but long term remains to be seen

The former Asian powerhouses had the rights to feel bitter, for they had come so close. It seems like Juan Antonio Pizzi remain committed and perhaps, has also identified the Blues’ weak and strong points. Four points gained during the 2026 WCQ were pretty impressive given their rebuilding mission.

The question is, can Kuwait maintain the pace? Qualifying for the World Cup is too hard for them at the moment, but they have qualified for the Asian Cup, so they need times to examine what have they done well and what mistakes they need to handle. They need all of that.

Also, the emergences of new talents also occur too: Mohammad Daham was the country’s sensation in the Gulf Cup. Salman Al-Awadhi and Yousef Majed Al-Arabi are also having promising futures. Perhaps, if Kuwait do well, the day they will be back among Asia’s elites is no longer far.

What can the Socceroos learn?

Australia are having a poor 2026 WCQ and they have to thank the intervention of fate for allowing them to stay second for so long to celebrate a Happy New Year; no national team got such a strange amount of luck to stay in the same position for months despite being subpar.

Enough said, the challenge remains. With Australia separated from the rest by just one solitary point, everything will be bitter. Just like understanding Indonesia’s motive in the ASEAN Championship, understanding Saudi Arabia’s move will be needed, in light of the Socceroos’ missed opportunity against Bahrain.

It is clear that Saudi Arabia’s instability truly run deep and cannot be solved in just a day, but still more than two months left before the qualification resumed and there are still rooms for changes.

Understanding Renard’s attempts and Saudi players’ activities in the ongoing Saudi Pro League, just like observing how to handle Indonesia and China, are crucial to secure the Socceroos qualification without going to playoffs.

Given Japan, clearly the most formidable in Group C, will only face Australia in June and Samurai Blue’s qualification unlikely to slip away, maximising from these opportunities in March is a must to compensate for the inability to beat Bahrain earlier.

For all of the ongoing hardship of the Socceroos, let’s hope 2025 will be a better year than the horror of 2024.