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The second leg of the 2024 ASEAN Championship semi-finals, a tournament that the Socceroos didn’t participate in despite being a member of the ASEAN Football Federation (AFF) since 2013, provided some intriguing aspects for the Aussies to observe as they seek to understand opponents Indonesia in the upcoming 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Here are some thoughts on the second leg.
After the 2-0 home defeat, Tsutomu Ogura’s Singapore side travelled to Viet Tri, knowing that only a win could help the four-time champions dream of a place in the final. Unsurprisingly, it was the Singaporean Lions to pile on the pressure first against the might of the hosts. Faris Ramli had a goal disallowed by VAR after the first ten minutes, suggesting that the Lions were going for the kill.
Yet, Vietnam were able to weather much of the earlier Singaporean storms before ending their first-half hoodoo with a penalty by Rafaelson in added time, as the Brazilian converted from the spot to extend the hosts’ lead. With everything firm and safe coming to the final 45 minutes, Vietnam consolidated their lead in the 63rd minute after a clumsy defending effort from Singapore.
Japan-born Kyoga Nakamura then struck superbly from afar to reduce the deficit for the visitors ten minutes later, only for another penalty to be given to the Vietnamese hosts, as Nguyễn Tiến Linh successfully converted.
Singapore only had themselves to blame when they couldn’t contain Nguyễn Tiến Linh and Rafaelson, as the duo struck both home and away against the Lions. For the Golden Dragons, their bid for a third regional title is closer than ever. Perhaps, Kim Sang-sik might have something to cheer for before the upcoming 2027 Asian Cup qualification.
Despite bringing a mixed squad to the competition this year, Thailand had demonstrated their comeback knack under Masatada Ishii; twice they came back to beat Singapore and Cambodia. Thailand were clearly a bit upset after the loss away to the Philippines, but they never lost their class.
Ultimately, the Thais would prove why they have seven regional trophies, the most of all AFF nations. Despite the Azkals opting to build up a massive defence wall, the War Elephants were able to penetrate to score two goals within the first 60 minutes through Peeradon Chamratsamee and Patrik Gustavsson. The Filipinos did force the Thais to overwork this time though, when substitute Bjørn Martin Kristensen had a brilliant solo run before calmly finishing with a low yet powerful shot to level the result at 3-3 on aggregate. From then until the 116th minute of extra time, the Filipino defence was well-drilled enough to keep the Thais at bay.
But if Kristensen was the Philippines’ super-sub in this match, Thailand replied with Suphanat Mueanta. Substituted in extra time, the striker would then give a powerful header to restore Thailand’s lead, a lead they would successfully maintain until the end of the match. In the end, Thailand advanced with a 4-3 win on aggregate in a frantic night in Rajamangala Stadium, guaranteeing their final ticket as they march closer to the eighth crown and, probably, becoming the first AFF nation to win the regional championship thrice in a row.
The 3-1 loss in Bangkok was a chastening moment for many Filipinos, as their Azkals came so agonisingly close to the final for the first time, only for it to be denied once again by a truly formidable Thai team. Former Barcelona B coach Albert Capellas clearly understood how his players felt when many Filipino players fell to the ground for something so close within their grasp.
Amidst the defeat, there was still a lot of optimism in the archipelago. Long dominated by basketball, football is now growing in popularity, and more Filipinos are embracing the new sport once shunned as a “rich man’s hobby”. The establishment of the Philippines Football League has also helped foster some new Filipino local talents. Some youngsters like Pocholo Bugas, Uriel Dalapo and, most notably, Sandro Reyes, are the products of the newfound professional era of Filipino football. The latter, a Makati native and trained in La Masia, was the country’s new phenomenon, with his skilful display and vision the hallmarks of the new Azkals.
Of course, things remain a bit challenging. The core of the Azkals remains highly dependent on diasporic players; out of 26 players called up for the ASEAN Championship, only one-third are native Filipinos. Having a large diaspora gave the Philippines an immense advantage, but the need to have a localised, organically developed football seed is a must, something the country has not set up well. They should start investing more in grassroots football if they wish to ever become the new force of Southeast Asia and to change the popular perception of the beautiful game.
While Indonesia are the only representatives of Southeast Asia in the 2026 WCQ final round, the roles of Vietnam and Thailand as the original powerhouses of Southeast Asian football remain unwavering. They were the first to reach the final round of WCQ, and since the new century, they had the best Asian Cup performances of all Southeast Asian teams, cementing their important roles in Southeast Asian football’s rise. Adding credibility, Thailand were the first Southeast Asian team in the final round and, while they were winless with only six draws, set the stage that Southeast Asian football could actually be competitive. Vietnam became the second to join this phase but they were the first to win, a heroic 3-1 victory over China, a milestone only recently broken by Indonesia’s famous 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
The Socceroos can recall a lot of memories against the Thais and Vietnamese, both youth and senior sections, and often these memories demonstrate the fierceness of their competitors. In the 2018 WCQ campaign, the Socceroos’ inability to collect a maximum six points out of the War Elephants cost Australia a direct qualification ticket to Saudi Arabia. Four years later, the Socceroos did better against the Golden Dragons but Vietnam turned out to be the only team Australia earnt all six points against as they got dumped by Saudi Arabia and Japan to playoffs again.
A lot of Thais and Vietnamese felt bitter for their shortcomings in the recent 2026 WCQ, when they both faltered in agonising fashion. But this also made the final more than a game; it served as a chance to redeem their past failures. For the Socceroos, it should be carefully observed, as their developments facilitated how Indonesia rose to prominence.
Having been unable to debut in the Southeast Asian tournament despite being an AFF member since 2013, the Socceroos’ subpar showings during the 2026 WCQ campaign made the 2024 ASEAN Championship more pivotal than ever.
While Indonesia didn’t advance past the group phase, the Indonesians sent a much weaker squad to the competition (despite still injecting several WCQ members), and perhaps the Aussies knew this – which made analysing Indonesia’s move necessary, similar to what Indonesian players in Europe and the US are doing.
Yet Indonesia aren’t the only ones. Thailand and Vietnam also show signs of recovery as well. Both teams were Australia’s previous WCQ opponents and, while Thailand and Vietnam were not able to qualify, they caused significant difficulties to the Socceroos. Thailand and Vietnam’s failures may have resulted in Australia’s gross underestimation of Indonesia this time around, contributing to the Socceroos’ poor display. And then, there’s also the rise of the Philippines and Singapore, the latter have a territorial size nearly equal to that of Bahrain. The last time the Socceroos played Singapore they were held to a surprise goalless draw.
The Socceroos have a lot of work to do to improve their poor WCQ showings, and they can’t lower their guard with their opponents who have had more time to gel in the ASEAN Championship. Indonesia’s strategy is clearly being honed during their unsuccessful campaign, while Thailand and Vietnam’s comebacks are also worth mentioning. And the developments of the Philippines and Singapore are also astonishing to watch.
In the Art of War, Sun Tzu always stressed the need to prepare for battles, “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” The ASEAN Championship, together with the ongoing Arabian Gulf Cup, are offering golden opportunities to catch glimpses of future opponents.
Don’t sit there, Aussies, go to work and analyse your opponents, if you wish to avoid yet another potential slump to the arduous playoffs route.
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