Group C of the 2026 WCQ third round in Asia can be considered to be the most insane of all groups in the final round that features 18 teams, due to the absence of logical explanation toward the affairs. Here’s the breakdown of what’s to be expected.

Japan

Perhaps the only truly “sane” team in this table, Japan are steamrolling the qualifiers with many impressive records. They have scored the most of all teams there, with 46 goals in total.

The Samurai Blue also conceded just two goals in response, and even then, only one was scored properly.

Clearly Japan are showing why their victories against Germany and Spain in the 2022 World Cup were no coincidences. A meticulous planning strategy for long term projects in football enabled the Samurai Blue to reach their zenith.

Although the disappointing 2023 Asian Cup felt a little bitter, it did not impact the team’s campaign, with the Japanese rebounding very quickly from that unhappy experience in Qatar. So far, only Australia succeeded in grinding down the Japanese storm by a 1-1 draw, while no others, even the mighty Saudi Arabia, could handle the power of the katana.

Cameron Burgess scores an own goal. (Photo by Kenta Harada/Getty Images)

It is still a long journey before Japan can finally ascend to the group of world’s elites, but their form in the current WCQ demonstrated Hajime Moriyasu’s team didn’t lie. They are showing for real.

Australia

Poor performances during the 2018 and 2022 WCQs should have rung the bell, the first phase of the 2026 WCQ can be described as a catastrophe for the Socceroos so far. Just seven points after six matches, Australia are finding their qualification hanging by a thread.

The Socceroos have never been truly functional in the final round since the 2018 qualifiers, but it was the horrors of September this time that exposed truly of the team’s ongoing crisis. Complete inability to beat Bahrain (twice) and Indonesia away, and almost suffered defeat at home to Saudi Arabia, the Socceroos are playing with fears rather than overcoming it.

The only win so far was against China, but it happened only yet another frightening moment when the Aussies let Xie Wenneng to strike first, further compounded to the team’s woes.

Coaching option is yet another issue. Instead of searching for someone else with credibility after Graham Arnold resigned in face of the September’s humiliation, the choice was Tony Popovic, who has proven to be deeply questionable with his unstable choices.

The fact that he threw away two November games, both ended with Australia grabbing just two draws in response, laid ground for sceptics to wonder if Football Australia is even serious.

Perhaps the upcoming foundation of the new, nationwide academy initiated by Football Australia in October 2024, is a promising sign to undo past errors. The Socceroos may also need to thank that Saudi Arabia have, by surprise, proven to be equally incompetent as well. The chaos, though, won’t guarantee the Socceroos’ progression if they are not quick for a total change.

Kusini Yengi scoers against Bahrain. (Photo by Christopher Pike/Getty Images)

Indonesia

José Mourinho once said: “I hope the Tottenham fans don’t get me wrong but the only club in my career where I don’t have still a deep feeling for is Tottenham. Probably because the stadium was empty, COVID time. Probably because Mr Levy [Daniel Levy] didn’t let me win a final and win a trophy.”

If Tottenham Hotspur have a nation, Indonesia is the answer.

Hard to understand what happened to the Garuda. The team had a crazy run in this phase, with six points at helm. The heroic win over Saudi Arabia at home was clearly the apex of the side, empowered with a ton of newly naturalised Dutch-born players, sending them third on the table by the virtue of better goal difference.

A poor ASEAN Championship showing for Indonesia didn’t diminish much of the optimism, since Indonesia had brought a much weaker squad, despite injecting several key players of the WCQ.

Yet they will play the remaining four games under a new coach. Shin Tae-yong, the Korean tactician famous for masterminding South Korea’s 2-0 win over Germany back in 2018 World Cup, the result he repeated against Saudi Arabia this time, was gone.

Replacing Shin is Patrick Kluivert, whose glorious playing career is being overshadowed by his poor record as a manager. The sacking of Shin was shocking for many Indonesians, who deified the Korean for his contribution to Indonesia’s rise to prominence; unsurprisingly, they were left outraged by the sacking and responded by booing Kluivert after the Dutchman landed in Indonesia.

Background issues clearly played a major role behind the shocking decision to sack Shin. While many indigenous Indonesian players had fond memories with the Korean, those diasporic players didn’t.

The clashing of values in Asian and European working ethos had taken a toll when Shin’s characteristics didn’t bode well with many Dutch-born players. Defeats to China and Japan also played a fundamental role as well, with Indonesia losing despite having many favourable conditions.

But the biggest, and most prevalent problem, seems to lie within the Indonesian Football Association (PSSI), perhaps because of Erick Thohir’s questionable options.

Saudi Arabia

Despite Saudi media and public’s constant elevation of the superiority of the Saudi Pro League’s new superstar signings and positive impacts to local players, the final months of 2024 showed otherwise.

Sitting fourth in the WCQ group with just six points, followed by a horrible Gulf Cup campaign, losing to Oman despite having one-man advantage for three quarters, everything has turned upside down for the Kingdom. Two years after the phenomenal showing at the World Cup, the Saudis are now in regression.

If Qatar have the worst defending record so far, Saudi Arabia have the worst offensive power out of 18 teams, with only three goals to their name. Two shocking defeats to Japan at home and Indonesia away, despite many favourable conditions within, shattered the Falcons. The subpar display of their talisman Salem Al-Dawsari, who failed to convert goal in two penalties earlier at home against Indonesia and Bahrain, was the first of many problems.

Other strikers like Saleh Al-Shehri, Firas Al-Buraikan, Abdullah Radif and Abdullah Al-Hamdan offered no solution either.

The lack of cohesion between foreign-based players like Saud Abdulhamid, Marwan Al-Sahafi and Faisal Al-Ghamdi to the team, clearly weakened the side’s performance as well, as Ali Al-Bulaihi was forced to shoulder the pressure. In the end, many Saudi goalkeepers are also not at peak, with Nawaf Al-Aqidi, Ahmed Al-Kassar and Mohammed Al-Owais failed to live up to expectation and merits.

Mitch Duke. (Photo by Mike Owen/Getty Images)

These horrors resulted in the sacking of Roberto Mancini as coach, with Hervé Renard – who masterminded the Saudis’ famous 2-1 comeback against Argentina in Qatar – reappointed to improve the side’s morale.

Instead, the Frenchman found that his opponents have already begun to work and nullify his strategies. Shock defeat to Indonesia away, coupled with humiliation at the hands of Bahrain and Oman in the Gulf Cup, underline the team’s inconsistency and struggle, and perhaps, Renard’s inability to find an answer despite still being tricky enough.

Bahrain

No team oscillated so much like Bahrain, whose results were plagued by inconsistency.

Bahrain were the headline when the Dilmun Warriors gained a famous 1-0 win over Australia right away in Gold Coast in September, and even forced Kusini Yengi to get red. Two months later, they suffered the greatest humiliation so far, falling by the exact score to China in front of 8000 home fans and also had a player, Waleed Al-Hayam, expelled in the same manner.

Clearly the shock home loss to China had done far more damage to Dragan Talajić’s side than any other result, bar the heavy 5-0 loss to Japan. The ghosts of these defeats proved so hard that Talajić vowed to win the Gulf Cup as the mean to showcase, which they did after beating Oman 2-1 to be crowned Gulf champions for the second time.

This showed that the Croatian is not just serious, but his vow to keep Bahrain fighting until the end is real. Six points were not for show, but to prove their worth.

Yet fate has other idea. China, which humiliated the Dilmun Warriors right at home soil, are coached by Talajić’s fellow countryman, Branko Ivanković; just the name alone has tortured many Bahrainis due to unhappy memories with teams formerly coached by Ivanković (Iran and Oman).

Then, the Gulf Cup title they gained in 2025 mimicked much of the similar glory in 2019, when Bahrain were also in firm control of the 2022 qualifiers; only for resurgent Iran to later knock Bahrain out with a 3-0 win. Will these elements doom Bahrain’s run or not, perhaps, remain to be seen.

China

It is hard to believe that China, the most ridiculed national team in this round, are still in contention, sharing similar points with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. This shows a lot of grits and determination within the Chinese side.

Team Dragons also made history in this phase as the first team to struck a proper goal against Japan, in a 3-1 home loss in Xiamen.

Branko Ivanković has done an incredible job in rejuvenating Team Dragons. Taking the helm from Aleksandar Janković after a lame Asian Cup showing, China are now more energetic, youthful and more ferocity than the time in Qatar.

The team’s ever-reducing reliance on naturalised Brazilian players like Fernandinho, Alan Carvalho and Elkeson, also proved to be positive; China have scored in every game since the heavy 7-0 defeat away to Japan, and all scorers were under 30 years old.

This improvement is greatly aided by the resurgence of youth football grassroots, with Chinese Football Association (CFA) established a nationwide school, university and youth football league, and the decrease of foreign superstars flooding the Super League.

Problems remain, still. Their poor record in aerial combats suggested they need improvement in this aspect, with both Australia, Saudi Arabia and Japan defeated China from it. But Chinese fans are slowly finding back the love they wanted to see from Team Dragons as China hope to keep the momentum on their quest for a second World Cup appearance.

What’s next for group C?

Given the insanity of the group, any correct assessment will be difficult, but here are some thoughts.

Japan are clearly the favourites and, while they have yet to qualify, March calendar has given Japan favourable conditions, by hosting Bahrain and Saudi Arabia at home. Only one win in March alone will be enough to secure Japan a safe passage to the United States, Mexico and Canada next year.

If not, they will need to rely on June calendar against Australia and Indonesia. Yet the depth of Japan’s squad makes it unlikely for them to drop points.

Australia are in a do-or-die situation. March fixtures against Indonesia at home and China away are deeply crucial since only victories can safeguard Australia’s fragile second place. If not, who know what to expect next for them in June, with Japan and Saudi Arabia waiting for them. This relies heavily on how will Tony Popovic come to sense, or will he step down early if he cannot do anything better.

Tony Popovic (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Indonesia’s self-inflicted instability, with change of managers from Shin Tae-yong to Patrick Kluivert, to apparent disunity among Indonesian players, has resulted in a massive upheaval in the archipelago, leaving question over Indonesia’s ambitions.

Under new management, Kluivert will clearly have better communication with fellow Dutch-born players, but if this comes out wrong, Indonesia will only have themselves to blame, with difficult games in March and June against Australia, Bahrain, China and Japan. Perhaps, the ghost of Vietnam’s case under Philippe Troussier is now looming to Indonesia.

Saudi Arabia aren’t themselves anymore and it is clear that the situation is beyond what Hervé Renard had expected earlier. The fact that opponents are becoming more and more familiar with Renard’s motivational tactics and even counter it represents huge challenges for Renard to adjust.

At the same time, the overuse of foreign legionnaires in Saudi Pro League is worth worrying too, especially when March and June calendar will provide them Japan, China, Bahrain and Australia – none of them will compromise their runs for the Saudis.

Bahrain will clearly show how scary they are after winning the Gulf Cup and undefeated to Australia and Saudi Arabia, but March calendar doesn’t seem to offer that. Japan is a whole different level than Australia and Saudi Arabia. Neither is June, when China are waiting for the Dilmun Warriors. In fact, just one loss alone, the momentum provided by their Gulf Cup victory will be lost, making Bahrain prone to fatal stumbles even more.

China will cherish these crucial six points obtained against Indonesia and Bahrain earlier as they look to continue their quest for a return to the World Cup. With Saudi side greatly weakened, Australia still searching ways to get out of their malaise, Indonesia that self-inflicted, and unstable Bahrain, China will look to exploit from both to gain more points as possible as Ivanković has already sworn to qualify for the World Cup via the playoff route.