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Another season of Super Rugby Pacific has come and gone. What’s the mood? Where do we sit? Is Super Rugby Pacific proving its worth? Is it time to cull the whole thing?
The answer, at least to this rugby fan, is simple: wait until next year. And no, that is not just a hapless shrug of the shoulders or an attempt to kick the can further down the road – 2025 will be a critical season for rugby in the Southern Hemisphere, even before you get to Super Rugby Pacific.
Rugby fans and commenters often do like to play the comparison game and say Super Rugby was not where it once was, and while that is certainly the case in comparison to the Noughties, it cannot be denied that slowly but surely, Super Rugby Pacific is clawing back interest.
Stan Sport is still to unveil its data, but at the very least, 2024 saw TV ratings up on both sides of the Tasman. While crowd attendance is more disputed in Australia, numbers are significantly up in New Zealand and the Pacific influence also being felt, with strong attendances in Fiji and Tonga delivering a promising crowd attendance for Moana Pasifika – even despite terrible weather conditions.
On the field, the change of the guard in New Zealand saw Australia pick up 11 victories over New Zealand opposition – nearly double what they managed in 2023. The Brumbies and Reds took notable strides forward, as did the Rebels who made history by making their first finals series ever.
It all culminated with a sell-out crowd at Eden Park for the Blues-Chiefs grand final, equalling the largest-ever crowd for a Super Rugby match in New Zealand’s history.
While it wasn’t as big as the Waratahs’ 2014 Grand Final win in front of 61,823 spectators or the 2017 Grand Final at Ellis Park that saw the Lions pipped by the Crusaders in front of 62,000 fans, selling out Eden Park is nothing to be sniffed at and paints a rosy picture of a competition on the up.
Surely, with all that change, things are looking up, right?
Well, certainly in New Zealand, there are positive news stories. However, Super Rugby sits in a weird place right now in Australia, probably worse than where it was 12 months ago. Ironic, considering nearly all attainable metrics, it was a better year.
The Blues celebrate after winning the Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final match between Blues and Chiefs at Eden Park, on June 22, 2024, in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
The Brumbies? Another semi-final exit. The Reds? Another quarter-final exit. Whatever third Aussie team that makes the cut? Scrapes into seventh or eighth and gets pumped in their quarter-final.
The more telling measurement of the health of the competition comes in the fact that the week before, the Blues defeated the Brumbies in front of a terrible crowd for a semi-final – even though the Brumbies offered more resistance in that match than the Chiefs did the following week.
Honestly, being an Australian rugby fan is a bit like being a marathon runner, except you don’t know when the finish line is, and you don’t know if you are about to stumble straight into your own vivisection.
At the end of 2024 Super Rugby Pacific, it feels more of the same – plus the added pain that the Melbourne Rebels’ removal will see rugby no longer have a professional representation in the largest city in Oceania.
Melbourne Rebel Josh Canham emotionally looks on after his team’s defeat in their last ever game after the Hurricanes and Melbourne Rebels fixture at the Sky Stadium on June 8th, 2024 in Wellington, New Zealand. (Photo by James Foy/Speed Media/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Kiwis can laugh, Kiwis can feel sorry, but it is a whole new level of disappointment when they don’t even consider you a threat any more. That’s the reality of the foot traffic and TV engagement.
While Super Rugby Pacific may be spun as being on the up, what makes it appealing to the Kiwi rugby public right now is facing other Kiwi teams or even Fijians. They don’t care about facing Australians, because it feels like a foregone conclusion.
So, with that grim assessment, why then should we postpone judgment on Super Rugby Pacific? Why should we not face up to the supposed inevitable truth?
We are locked into this competition until 2030, and with that amount of time, it would be wrong to fall into the shorthand, buzzword-induced Twitter-length arguments of writing the competition off. But, at the same time 2024 shows us that a splintering is occurring on both sides of the Tasman that needs to be addressed.
2025 will be the key test of Super Rugby Pacific, and the obvious reason why is the removal of the Rebels.
Cutting an Australian side has been something many commentators have talked about for years – purely based on the argument of depth. Now, it’s happened and looks unlikely to change. The best-case scenario is that most Rebels players choose to move to another franchise, thereby increasing the depth overall.
Some may even argue that a second team being cut is probably necessary – but after nearly 20 years of four or more professional-based systems all over the country, surely the one positive that has come out of this god-awful shitty mess is that we are now at a point where we can sustain four professional teams of decent quality?
Increased competitiveness has to be seen, from the get-go. There is no excuse in 2025 for Australian sides if each team gets useful pickings from the Rebels.
Would that transform the competition to see multiple Australian sides competing? Would it bring a lot of the disgruntled fanbase back?
It could, and maybe 2025 will see the competition launch up the ratings, be filled with fixtures that genuinely no one could predict, and see it increasingly become the topic of conversation come Monday morning at places of work.
Allan Alaalatoa of the Brumbies during the Super Rugby Pacific Semi Final match between Blues and ACT Brumbies at Eden Park, on June 14, 2024, in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Alternatively, what happens if the four Australian sides still turn up, but the fans on both sides of the Tasman still stay away?
Is it that they have become so disengaged from years and years of disappointment, that they are not even willing to give the competition a chance? Will that say everything to the higher-ups that the competition needs to be put to rest?
And then, what about the worst-case scenario – that the removal of the Rebels does nothing?
What if most Australian sides continue to languish at the bottom of the ladder, with the Brumbies and Reds likely making finals before being knocked out convincingly? Then, low and behold, we see another all-Kiwi final in 12 months.
Honestly, this worst-case scenario is the most likely to happen. That’s not being pessimistic, but understanding that the quality of players is not what holds Australia back, but the system they find themselves in.
Commenters below may disagree, but looking at the squads of each respective Aussie franchise, we should have the depth for four, competitive run-on sides plus a strong bench.
Speaking on the Roar Rugby Podcast, Matt Too’mua has often spoken about his development compared to many of his Kiwi counterparts, and how often, the intensity of each respective program translates to notable growth on the field.
“It was purely that intensity lift.” @mtoomua believes that while Australian sides look to have matched the Kiwis for strategy, the sheer intensity lift and execution come finals has proven the key difference to address.
— The Roar (@TheRoarSports) June 19, 2024
LISTEN: https://t.co/EYM3APpeo9@ChristypDoran pic.twitter.com/4qtpZwdKaB
Last week, speaking on the Brumbies loss, Too’mua delivered a brutal reality of each rugby program in Australia.
“You look at the game, you look at the game plans, the fancy, pretty stuff… we were good, we were fine. It was purely that intensity lift,” Too’mua admitted.
“All Australian teams failed to keep up with the Kiwi teams in the games that mattered… it is a little concerning that it is kind of consistent across the board in all teams.”
If Australia’s teams fail to fire in 2025, the depth argument becomes harder to justify if the Rebels are gone and their players have transitioned into the remaining teams.
It is in how the teams are run, and the culture in the building. A significant lack of improvement under the current system in place would prove, if anything, not to be a reflection of player depth, but on the fact we cannot financially afford to manage the depth we have properly and run our teams well enough to foster any sort of success.
This worst-case scenario is also likely because the Kiwi sides will be a lot better in 2025 – this season saw a change of coaches and a massive player turnover at most franchises, and all sides (except the Crusaders) either improved or maintained their level of performance. It culminated in another all-Kiwi final.
Even with minimal squad retention and the same coaches in every team bar the Reds, Australia’s Super Rugby sides still came up short in 2024. How will they go against Kiwi sides with an additional year under their belt?
The landscape has changed immeasurably in 2024, and whether it is for better or worse, it is too soon to know. Only time will tell.
However, in this new landscape, 2025 is the ultimate litmus test for Super Rugby Pacific and whether it can survive in this new world – or whether it is time to retire the concept for good.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.