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Hope Springs in the Autumn.
Early bird New Zealand are cramming in five Tests looking for a hat-trick in London, Dublin and Paris whilst swaggering South Africa are gliding into a more modest tour of Edinburgh, London and Cardiff.
Aspiring Australia can do a Grand Slam but start and end with a big bang. Argentina jump from the Italian-Croatian border (in a town called Udine) to Dublin and back to old Saint-Denis.
Fiji take on three Home Nations but substitute Spain for England, bored of beating them at Twickenham.
Having been smashed by the All Blacks, Japan will limp west to take on France before a juicy reunion between Eddie Jones and Steve Borthwick. The Sweet Chariot is 4-4 for 2024 but faces a back-to-back-to-back gauntlet of Kiwis, Aussies and Saffas to check their alignment.
ULTIMATE GUIDE TO WEEK ONE AND ALL THE AUTUMN NATIONS SERIES FIXTURE TIMES
Ireland won top ranking with a Durban drop goal at the death but could give it back to the Boks with a stumble.
Uruguay and Chile venture to Europe for adventure, whilst the USA play Tonga in the foothills of the French Alps in a stadium built for 5000: worth a look if you are skiing. Also, No. 28 Zimbabwe play No. 51 UAE even as the top ten tussles.
What might we see during this autumnal spring tour? Whose tired leaves will fall, and which team’s petals will grow best? Who will rise and who will be sent homeward, to think again?
TEN FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
1. England Begin as Favourite to Resume 1845 Dominance: In the English press and mind.
2. No. 9 Fiji Will Beat No. 7 Scotland: Simon Raiwalui built for more than one campaign and the rewards of Drua cohesion (25 Drua are named) will be on display within structures which do not fold as easily as before. Scotland cannot rely on set piece superiority and Finn Russell does not encounter 15 Fijians tackling him at once at Bath.
3. No. 7 Fiji Will Beat No. 11 Wales: Fiji can take Scotland’s ranking and sail into Cardiff on 10 November heavily favoured to win for only the second time in history over Wales. Wales will look at this Test as if they are underdogs on home soil. The roof closed, a quick pitch, and a likely shootout. Fiji recover from this match with an easier fixture in Valladolid, Spain before one last fling in Dublin. A 3-1 tour is feasible and expected.
4. Nothing Will Be Made Clear: This window of Tests has built in excuses and as much clarity as the fact it is titled both spring and autumn. Losers will point to schedule and injury lists; rankings will be mocked. Various cups will be handed over; stars born. The wonderfully mysterious world of rugby, in law and in fact, will carry on as ever it did.
5. But Wallabies Can Make a Loud Statement: Australia can, should and must beat Wales. Dave Rennie beat Wales. Eddie Jones lost to Wales. Joe Schmidt must keep beating Wales.
Nobody truly expects or requires Schmidt’s still gelling Australian team, without the new collars, to beat England first up and Ireland at the last. Depth without overseas reinforcements will put pay to any Dublin upset; it is not about who is a certain starter so much as how weak are the weakest two or three on the bench. Ireland has no drop-off, as was seen in South Africa this year.
Hunter Paisami of the Wallabies in action during the men’s International Test match between Australia Wallabies and Wales at Allianz Stadium on July 06, 2024 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
But it is the third Test on tour which sticks out like a beacon: what if the Wallabies can best Scotland for the 13th time in history?
The first time was in 1947, the second in 1984 (setting in motion a run of six wins until 2009), and the last time the sides played, Australia took it by one point. There may be no better barometer of their power and pace, with several Aussies in the Scottish lineup (27-cap and captain Sione Tuipulotu, his uncapped brother Mosese, and 20-cap Jack Dempsey) as well as many Super Rugby veterans (South Africans Nathan McBeth, Dylan Richardson, Pierre Schoeman, Duhan van der Merwe, as well as Kiwi flyhalf Tom Jordan).
The Wallabies would announce improvement with a win over a team they will look at as beatable, with only Russell, Blair Kinghorn, and van der Merwe clearly more skilled or talented than their opposite number.
5. The Eagles are Grounded: Only seven years from now, a World Cup will be staged in the United States. Whilst MLR has grown in all the stats that matter for building a league (from last year, 26% more national broadcasting, 38% more hours watched, 55% more subscribers, 13% more bums in seats at games, 25% more social followers, and a 117% rise in revenue) the record on the field in Tests lately has been lacklustre to poor.
The issue is not the talent anymore. Bristol Bears are led by 37-cap Eagles flyhalf AJ McGinty (Blackrock-trained Irishman) and he is a top ten playmaker and goalkicker. Lock Greg Peters (Sydney’s own The Scots College, Manly man, NRC North Harbour, 2011 Australia U20 member, Glasgow Warrior, and now captain) is a proper lock. Around them are devastating carriers, heavy forwards, and enterprising speedsters. The issue is coaching. From 2016 to 2022, the team has had four coaches, with disastrous turns by both John Mitchell and Gary Gold. Current coach Scott Lawrence has brought in two proper forwards coaches (Nick Easter and Blake Bradford). They will need to build tight rugby prowess before unleashing set plays by Kiwi-Samoan attack guru Alama Ieremia. The Eagles face Portugal, Tonga (in Chambery) and Spain. This tour looms as a benchmark.
6. England Can Make Their Season: After an enthralling series earlier this year in which the All Black bench swung it late, England and New Zealand kick us off on Sunday AEDT at the Allianz in London. England cannot afford to fade late; Razor Robertson’s men have struggled to score in the last quarter since their July meetings. Borthwick has named six Saracens, five Harlequins, three Bathers, three Sharks, two Bears, two Chiefs, two Tigers, and two Saints; vitally, he has gone with a 6-2 split, but dropped Sam Underhill for loosie specialists Ben Curry and Alex Dombrandt on the bench with Harry Randall and George Ford as the two back substitutes.
No. 8 Ben Earl will cover the midfield if needed. Look for England to mount a full 80-minute challenge to the visitors this time. Coin flip, plenty of niggle, and an almost certain experiment with how Twickenham Man reacts to the reddish card innovation. If England were to beat Ireland and New Zealand in one season, Borthwick could rightly declare it a fine year.
7. All Blacks All Brutal: After being underdogs on a European tour only a couple of times in a hundred years, New Zealand will not be favoured in Dublin or in Paris. This is new. Robertson’s squad had to wear that tag in Johannesburg and Cape Town in The Rugby Championship and came up short. But revenge is a theme in both these rematches. Rieko Ioane made his side’s feelings well known with his ‘back ten’ to Irish patron rugby saint Johnny Sexton. Australian Nic Berry will officiate what is sure to be a spicy Test. (Aussie ref Reuben Keane has Berry beaten for cool fixtures as he will whistle at the Kai Tak Youth Sportsground in Kowloon for Brazil v. Hong Kong). France took a bit too much out of their Pool A win and the All Blacks will want to dent that mystique. For England, Joe Marler resurrected anti-haka sentiment, left Twitter X, returned, and will pack down in juicy scrums with massive home support. This will be the most passionate Tour.
Rieko Ioane of New Zealand celebrates victory at full-time following the Rugby World Cup France 2023 Quarter Final match between Ireland and New Zealand at Stade de France on October 14, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
8. The Boks Pick to Win Big: Rassie Erasmus is a quirky selector but for this slender three-Test tour he has made the best available, well, available. The Boks will be looking for a no-card, low penalty, good percentage of points per entry, tidy and clean obliteration. That is what they will get. Look for record wins at Murrayfield, Twickenham Allianz, and Cardiff en route to another 11-win year and a possible wire-to-wire No.1 ranking if Ireland stumbles just once.
9. An Italian Will be Crowned the New It Boy: Is it just because they have names which sound like liqueur and tend to be a bit more handsome than most? Toulouse’s Ange Capuozzo was the second most lauded player behind Antoine Dupont a while back. Paolo Garbisi of Toulon took his cape. Juan Brex of Benetton inherited the love. Tommaso Menoncello is also a fan favourite. Michele Lamaro might just edge Lorenzo Cannone in this phase.
10. Will Tane Edmed or Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii Play More Minutes? West Harbour Juniors firebrand Edmed and The Kings School’s Suaalii may or may not even play. Both have never played a Test. One looks a bit better in the tight new jersey. Whose hype wins?
This columnist has always maintained Edmed is the missing link and thus the prediction is he will steer the good SS Wallaby into northern victory.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.