Wales are a much more familiar foe for this Wallabies side than England last week.
Australia hosted Warren Gatland’s team earlier this year in July and was the perfect opposition for Joe Schmidt to begin his tenure as head coach.
The Wallabies contributed two defeats to Wales’ winless 2024, with the Australian mentor and his new-look coaching ticket “avenging” an embarrassing World Cup loss in 2023.
Schmidt and co. were adamant that the World Cup wasn’t a factor in the build-up, rather this was a new team with a clean slate. But if the Wallabies were to truly get a fresh start from the Eddie regime, they couldn’t rely on the hurt to fuel their performances, they had to let those scars heal. Liam Wright’s selection as team captain did just that.
His elevation was a sign of a new era for this Wallabies team. No matter what was to come under Schmidt, Australia was clear that this was a new team, not a remnant of 2023.
Below is a comparison of Wales’ starting team from July at AAMI Park and the team they have selected for this weekend’s matchup.
| July 13th 2024 | November 17th 2024 |
| 1. Gareth Thomas | 1. Gareth Thomas |
| 2. Dewi Lake © | 2. Dewi Lake © |
| 3. Archie Griffin | 3. Archie Griffin |
| 4. Christ Tshiunza | 4. Will Rowlands |
| 5. Dafydd Jenkins | 5. Adam Beard |
| 6. James Botham | 6. James Botham |
| 7. Tommy Reffell | 7. Jac Morgan |
| 8. Taine Plumtree | 8. Aaron Wainwright |
| 9. Ellis Bevan | 9. Ellis Bevan |
| 10. Ben Thomas | 10. Gareth Anscombe |
| 11. Rio Dyer | 11. Blair Murray |
| 12. Mason Grady | 12. Ben Thomas |
| 13. Owen Watkin | 13. Max Llewellyn |
| 14. Liam Williams | 14. Tom Rogers |
| 15. Cameron Winnett | 15. Cameron Winnett |
Compounding losses in 2024 have culminated in former stalwarts like Mike Phillips questioning the head coach.
Phillips, who is currently serving a 25-month ban from driving after being arrested on July 7 with blood alcohol three times over the legal limit, took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to give a performance review of Gatland’s recent work.
Jamie Roberts and Dan Biggar have also been vocal this week to express their disappointment at Wales’ results in 2024.
However, when you look at this current playing group, they’re feeling the effects of an overreliance on the likes of Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau and George North.
Wales have been buying wins on credit so to speak. The squad were over-reliant on stalwarts due to there being a lack of real quality behind them pushing them out of the squad.
However, Gatland and Wayne Pivac did fail to bring in new players bit by bit alongside these stalwarts resulting in the quality across the entire squad decreasing year on year.
Andrew Kellaway challenges for the ball in Melbourne. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Despite that, let’s look at some of the players who have replaced said stalwarts in the team today. Dewi Lake is now a key piece of this Welsh pack at hooker and has improved his lineout throwing.
Adam Beard has taken over the mantle of the enforcer in Wyn Jones’ absence with Dafydd Jenkins out injured and Christ Tshiunza is slowly but surely delivering on his athletic potential.
Aaron Wainwright is another who has been elevated to a starter after being a squad player and Jac Morgan’s emergence has been a godsend in the wake of Sam Warburton, Josh Navidi and Ellis Jenkins.
The reality is that this team is a six or seven out of 10 team. They sit in 11th place in World Rugby’s rankings and while Ireland and South Africa gripe about who’s number one, Wales’ ranking is justified.
Since their quarter-final exit to Argentina in 2023, Wales has lost to Scotland once (sixth-ranked), England once (seventh), Ireland once (third), France once (fourth), Italy once (10th), South Africa once (first), Australia twice (eighth), the Queensland Reds and Fiji (ninth).
I’m sorry Welsh fans but barring a touring game to Suncorp Stadium, which of those games should you have won?
With two more tests against Australia and South Africa respectively, it’s not unrealistic to think Wales might finish 2024 without a single win.
Australian fans will be more familiar with this Welsh team than some of the others they will face in this Autumn Nations Series.
Gareth Thomas is in at loosehead and having made his debut in 2021, he now has 30 caps to his name at 31 years of age. Twelve tackles out of 45 minutes of international isn’t too shabby.
Dewi Lake’s strength is now a mainstay in this team and 18/18 lineouts is a great indication that this Welsh team is solid if not exhilarating.
Wales rugby coach Warren Gatland. (David Davies/PA via AP)
Archie Griffith has the physical profile to impress. He’s 6’3, weighs 124 kilos and at only 23 years of age, he is impressive. Ten tackles is a busy showing for a tighthead prop.
However, all three front-rowers were subbed off in the 45th minute which is a brave call by Gatland – but his bench options don’t fill you with confidence.
Lake in particular played deep into the final quarter of Wales’ recent games in Australia, so keep an eye on how the coach utilises the bench this weekend.
They were in a position to win the game with a lineout in Fiji’s 22 in the final minutes. Elias, the replacement hooker was the one to cough up the ball.
Will Rowlands and Beard in the second row, now that looks like an international calibre combo. They had 25 tackles, two of which were deemed “dominant” and 17 carries, this pairing has what it takes to act as a pillar for Gatland to build on.
Rowlands is 33 years old but is filling his role well with Tshiunza waiting in the wings or in this case on the bench.
James Botham gets his chance in the number six jersey despite a busy day for Taine Plumtree.
Morgan who missed the July tests comes back into the number seven jersey and will be vital in order to stop the Wallabies getting their hands free post-contact.
Wainwright made 22 metres from eleven carries, some serious hard yards. His experience captaining the side will be useful for Lake to lean on.
At number 9, Ellis Bevan returns in place of Tomos Williams. His most memorable moment came during the buildup to an eventual disallowed try.
(Photo by Adam Pretty – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
While the pancake handoff from Josua Tuisova, didn’t count on the scoreboard, it might have been by Gatland. Gareth Anscombe continues at 10, a rather iconic jersey in World Rugby.
Anscombe has been electric for Gloucester so far this season, Australia’s drift defence may afford Anscombe the space to unleash Wales’ promising back three.
Jamie Roberts recently heralded in the next generation of centres, highlighting Eddie James and Max Llewellyn.
Llewellyn got his chance last week and does so again, but is instead combined with Ben Thomas who more recently started at ten against Australia in the Summer.
Their inexperience was on show, particularly in defence against Fiji. However, Wales’ first try came off the back of a big carry from Llewellyn into Fiji’s 22.
Later on in the phase, Thomas shipped the pass under incredible pressure, flat to Fiji’s line to an arcing Mason Grady whose pace in the wider channel allowed Cameron Winnett to draw and pass Fiji’s remaining defenders freeing up Blair Murray to score on debut.
Hard carry by Llewellyn, ruck over. Tomos Williams with the sharp skip pass passed Wainwright to Anscombe who ran at pace.
Anscombe skips the next pod of forwards to find Thomas who flicks to Grady, initially running a support line for Llewellyn’s carry, who gets around the corner and fixes Waisea Nayacalevu.
Grady does the simple things well and passes to Winnett who passes to Murray who finishes in the corner.
If Australia gives Wales space they have the ability to score. The wider channels were problem areas for the Wallabies versus England.
Combine this with a 100% lineout and Wales has the potential to dampen Australia’s party.
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